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By SteelCityColt · Posted
Expected Value is purely a mathematical term. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value I had to remove your analogy, not just because it was completely off base, but also well over the line in terms of site rules. No one is saying go purely off the numbers, because football is too complicated to model perfectly for that given situation. One dice roll is not the same as another dice roll. But over a large enough sample size you will get regression to the mean, so for a given down/distance you can calculate the EV of points. This applies more for short 4th downs in the red zone, and seeing if the EV is getting greater than a FG. 
It was fun to go back and look at the predictions, and compare them with the actual score of 30  18, Colts.

So from 40+ yards MB  2438 RB  1521 Not a big difference. Kind of 6 of one 1/2 of the other.


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